The headline over an article in Ha-aretz by Bradley Burston on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s poker game with President Obama was If Obama wins in November, is Netanyahu in trouble? That’s a question I’ve had in my own mind for quite some time and it begs another. What, really, worries Netanyahu most – the prospect (not real) of Iran posing an existential threat to Israel or the prospect (real) of a second-term Obama?
There is, Burston wrote, something new in the air, something Netanyahu does not like. What is it? “American conservatives have begun to think out loud that Barack Obama will win in November.”
In my opinion there’s a better than evens chance that in the course of a second Obama term, America would put its own best interests first, which would mean an end to unconditional American support for the Zionist state of Israel right or wrong. (As is often the case, the Gentile me and Gideon Levy are on the same page. The headline over one of his recent articles in Ha-aretz was It’s only a matter of time before U.S. tires of Israel).
There are three main reasons why I have that opinion.
The first is my belief that Obama hates being a prisoner of the Zionist lobby and its stooges in Congress. (I think that Max Hastings, a former editor of the Daily Telegraph and a well respected military historian, was spot on when he wrote the following in a recent article for the Daily Mail. “Privately, Obama yearns to come down hard n Netanyahu, whom he dislikes intensely. But the U.S. President does not dare to do this when his own re-election may hinge on the three per cent of American voters who are Jewish.”)
The second, and much more to the real point, is that behind closed doors there are now many in the top levels of America’s military, intelligence and foreign policy establishments who are aware that an Israel which has no interest in peace with the Palestinians, and is led by men who want war with Iran, is an Israel that is much more of a liability than an asset for the U.S. There is also awareness in the top levels of America’s military, intelligence and foreign policy establishments that Netanyahu decided to play the Iran threat card in order to divert attention away from Israel’s on-going consolidation of its occupation of the West Bank and, in short, to have Palestine taken off the American foreign policy agenda.
The third is the insight given to me by former President Carter when my wife and I met with him and Rosalyn after they had said goodbye to the White House. “Any American president has only two windows of opportunity to break or try to break the Zionist lobby’s stranglehold on Congress on matters to do with Israel Palestine.”
The first window is during the first nine months of a president’s first term because after that the soliciting of funds for the mid-term elections begins. Presidents don’t have to worry on their own account about funds for mid-term elections, but with their approach no president can do or say anything that would offend the Zionist lobby and cost his party seats in Congress. The second window of opportunity is the last year of his second term if he has one. In that year, because he can’t run for a third term, no president has a personal need for election campaign funds or organised votes. (I imagine that incoming President Obama, briefed by Carter or not, was fully aware of these limited windows of opportunity and that was why he tried in his first nine months to get a freeze on Israel’s illegal settlement activity).
So my answer to Burston’s headline question is yes, Netanyahu could very well be in trouble if Obama wins a second term.
A good indication of Netanyahu’s fear of a second term Obama is, I think, the mountain of money his seriously wealthy supporters in America are investing in the effort to get a Republican into the White House who will allow Netanyahu and the Zionist lobby to pull his strings.
Question: Given that he does not want Obama to have a second term, what now are Netanyahu’s options?
I can see three possibles.
One is to watch and wait and hope that there will be a downturn in the American economy between now and November that will assist a Republican presidential candidate to defeat Obama.
Another is to launch a unilateral attack on Iran’s nuclear sites (never mind that Iran’s leaders have not taken a decision to go nuclear for weapons and possibly never will unless Iran is attacked).
Question: How might initiating a war with Iran assist Netanyahu to put Obama in real trouble?
One short answer is that the probable regional and global fall-out of an Israeli attack on Iran, including soaring oil prices, could bring what is being presented as a slow but sure recovery of the American economy to a swift halt. And that, most likely, would be enough to guarantee Obama’s defeat in November. (In an analysis for The National Interest, an American bi-monthly foreign policy journal, Paul Pillar, a former, very senior CIA analyst and today a visiting professor at Georgetown University for security studies, noted that the welfare of American consumers and workers is “not high” on the list of decision-making criteria for Netanyahu and his government).
There is, however, one thing that could cause Netanyahu not to go with this option. Quite apart from the fact that Israel’s past and present intelligence and military chiefs are divided on the wisdom of a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran, the polls are showing that a majority of Israeli Jews are opposed to Israel going it alone with an attack on Iran. They’re in favour of Iran being attacked but only if America becomes engaged and takes the lead.
And that brings us to a possible third option for Netanyahu. It is to commission a Mossad false flag operation – an attack on a vital American interest or interests for which Iran could be and would be framed.
The Zionist lobby, Obama’s Republican rivals and much if not all of the American mainstream media would promote this falsehood as fact, and that could leave Obama with no choice but to commit American military power. If he did not, his Republican challenger or challengers, assisted by the Zionist lobby and most if not all of the American mainstream media would accuse him of failing to protect America’s security interests and betraying Israel. And that, given the ignorance of American public opinion, would almost certainly be enough to guarantee Obama’s defeat.
For his own part Obama absolutely does not want war another war. He’s frightened, as he should be, of the possible/probable consequences.
Quite apart from the possible/probable economic consequences (including soaring gasoline prices in America), Obama understands completely that U.S. engagement in a new and broader regional war will ignite more anti-Americanism and play into the hands of Arab and other Muslim radicals and extremists, perhaps to the point of assisting them to become the dominant political power in the region. And that, were it to happen, would be potentially catastrophic for America’s best interests in the Arab and wider Muslim world. (Netanyahu would, of course, be quietly pleased because his Israel needs enemies).
So far as I am aware there is no well informed commentator who is prepared to make an explicit prediction about what Netanyahu will do – whether he will or will not order a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran in the closing stages of the American election. If I had to bet my life on it, I’d say he won’t; but there’s a real danger that his anti-Iran rhetoric, described in a recent Ha’aretz editorial as “a combination of wretchedness and megalomania”, may create an unstoppable momentum for war.
As my readers know, I regard Ha’aretz as the most honest newspaper in the world on the subject of what is really happening in Israel. Its view of Netanyahu was on display in a recent editorial headlined Israel must not lend itself to Netanyahu’s vulgar rhetoric on Iran. I think the whole editorial ought to be required reading not only for those who want to replace Obama as president but for all American voters. Here is the text of it (with my emphasis added).
Anyone who cares about Israel’s future could not help but feel a chill upon hearing Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent speech at the AIPAC conference – if not because of the gravity of the existential threat it described, then because of its sheer vulgarity and bad taste. The prime minister, as if he were no more than a surfer leaving feedback on a website, did not hesitate to crassly compare Israel today to the situation of European Jewry during the Holocaust. And to spice up his speech with one of those visual gimmicks he so loves, he even pulled out a photostat of correspondence in order to imply a comparison between U.S. President Barack Obama’s cautious approach toward attacking Iran and President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s refusal to bomb the rail lines to Auschwitz.
Netanyahu sometimes seems like he is holding a debating competition with himself. Every speech is the “speech of his life” and must overshadow its predecessor, while afterward, as if they were rehashing a sporting event, he and his aides gleefully count the number of standing ovations, especially from his American listeners. And in order to wring an ovation from the end of every sentence, it seems as if all means are legitimate: kitsch (trash) and death, threats and vows, warnings and rebukes of the entire world.
This time, too, it’s not quite clear what he wanted to obtain via this inane rhetoric – a combination of wretchedness and megalomania – aside from applause. Did he want pity? To prick the conscience of the world? To terrify himself, or perhaps to inflame the Churchillian fantasy in which he lives? But one thing is clear: Aside from the fact that he deepened our feelings of victimhood, insulted the American president and narrowed the options for diplomacy, Netanyahu did not improve Israel’s situation one jot by this speech, just as he hasn’t by any of his others.
Netanyahu isn’t the first Israeli prime minister, especially from the right, to harp on the trauma of the Holocaust. But in contrast to Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon, who at the moment of truth also displayed diplomatic and leadership abilities, Netanyahu was and remains essentially a PR man: someone for whom words and rhetoric replace reality. The spine-chilling fear is that one day, all of us – himself included, despite his caution and hesitation – will discover too late that we have become hostages to his Churchillian speech, but without a Churchillian victory.
I’ll conclude with my own favourite story about Netanyahu.
Way back in 1984 I had an appointment for lunch in New York with the Englishman I most admire, Brian (later knighted) Urquhart. He was an Undersecretary General of the UN with the responsibility for conflict management. He served four Secretary Generals and was, in fact, the world’s number one trouble-shooter. Because of his matchless grasp of international affairs and his integrity, he was respected by leaders on both sides of all the conflicts he managed. And he never pulled his punches in behind-closed doors exchanges with leaders. On one private occasion Prime Minister Begin said he should not talk with Arafat. Urquhart looked Begin in the eye and said: “Mr. Prime Minister, I am the servant of the international community, don’t you dare to tell me who I can and cannot talk to!”
When Brian arrived for lunch, he said as he was sitting down, “I’ve just met the most dangerous man in the world.”
I asked who it was.
Brian replied: “He’s just presented his credentials as Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Footnote
For those who might want to lighten the gloom with a laugh, here’s a very funny joke I received by e-mail a few days ago.
A plane left Heathrow Airport under the control of a Jewish captain. His co-pilot was Chinese. It was the first time they had flown together and an awkward silence between the two seemed to indicate a mutual dislike.
Once they reached cruising altitude, the Jewish captain activated the auto-pilot, leant back in his seat, and muttered, “I don’t like Chinese.”
“No rike Chinese?” asked the co-pilot, “why not?”
“You people bombed Pearl Harbour, that’s why!”
“No, no”, the co-pilot protested, “Chinese not bomb Peahl Hahbah. That Japanese, not Chinese.”
“Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese…doesn’t matter, you’re all alike.”
There was a few minutes of silence….
“I no rike Jews,” the co-pilot suddenly announced.
“Oh yeah, why not?” the captain asked.
“Jews sink Titanic.” the co-pilot replied.
“What? That is insane! Jews didn’t sink the Titanic!” the captain exclaimed. “It was an iceberg.”
“Iceberg, Goldberg, Greenberg, Rosenberg, nomattah…all same.”
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Answering your personal question, Alan. Obama's re-election is Bibi's least worry - as AIPAC believes that Obama is best 'Jewish President' Israel will ever have. AIPAC is set on establishing Israel-Firsters' majority in the both Houses to keep Obama under Israel thumb for the next four years.
It's not Iran but Israel which is existential threat not only to Iran but all of its Arab neighbors which are part of Zionists' dream of the 'Eretz Ysrael'.
Canadian war reporter and author, Eric Margolis, in his latest article said: "Obama says "no" to the Lobby".
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2012/03/15/obama-no-war-with-iran-for-israel/
There is one comment that demeans this otherwise invaluable essay. It is reference to the impact 3 million American Jews could have on the election. You must jest. They have as much impact as voters as me and my fellow Greek-Americans. But there is a difference: the massive amounts of money controlled by the Jewish-Israeli lobby can make a major impact. That is the point that should be made. = George Beres
Alan, I remember our Skype conversation from 2 years ago where you had responded to my statement about Netanyahu being a dangerous man with the anecdote you relate here. I guess since that time, you and I have both been proven to be right.
Unfortunately, I doubt that any of your scenarios relating to Obama will occur, however. My feeling is that Obama is so utterly intimidated by Netanyahu that nothing will change, especially if we see an increase in the number of Republicans in Congress after the elections.
Sir,
Both the U.S. and the U.K. are going to release their strategic oil reserves on the market.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-official-us-uk-release-oil-stocks
It would'nt surprise me! if the U.S.-U.K. motivation to do such is NOT (mere)economic, but an oil-pricing anticipation, the next step, towards the 'further' implementation of the 1998 Neo-Conservative geo-political agenda, known as P.N.A.C. i.e. the Project of the New American Century.
U.S.-U.K.-Israeli strategic military strategic 'facts on the ground' have been build-up and implemented in the Middle-East, and beyond, since the first Bush New-World-Order-War in 1991. By now, Iran is totally surrounded and in a economic/financial (Western/Israeli) death-grip.
It's my view, that Obama/Netanyahu/and U.K's Cameron are playing the next geo-political-military kabuki-act, it's smoke and mirrors all over again.
War and Rumors of War, that's the time we're living in.
George, with respect, you are wrong. Genereally speaking Jewish Americans live, are concentrated, in a few voting constituencies (a lingering ghetto mentality?); and the fact is that in tight election races the organized Jewish vote could determine who ends up in the White House.
i continue to believe a purely american interest in the middle east may better serve it. all the arab nations are restrained bcos of the israeli occipation. will american and israeli leaders ever realise that palestinians are most naturally inclined to israel now? i meant culturally, historically and geographically too! Thats only if the end game is a justifiable two or one state solution. Bantistanism or mass expulsion are not viable options
Thank you Alan for the joke. After awhile, reading all of these things about coming war gets to tearing down the mind into a frazzled mess. - The Chinese guy was speaking the truth even if he meant it as a joke. I don't know where I put the article explaining that point of view, but checking around on the net may bring it up. Three of the richest men in the world dying that night on the Titanic, and the following year the FED gets established. Not a coincidence.
If Obama wins in November, is Netanyahu in trouble?
My answer: No.
A few points. The US elections are rigged.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=pUs-DoeqI5U
You will find no democracy and therefore, there are no unknowns.
If Netinyahoo believes that Obama has been chosen to win for a second term; and he does not want that to occur; then he has some options.
1. Promote information that Obama's birth certificate is forged:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99eYfk87qGI&feature=related
2. Support Obama's impeachment.
http://www.infowars.com/resolution-threatens-obama-impeachment/
Netinyahoo has done neither. Conclusion; a second Obama term presidency is no threat.
"In my opinion there’s a better than evens chance that in the course of a second Obama term, America would put its own best interests first, which would mean an end to unconditional American support for the Zionist state of Israel right or wrong."
The US has supported ersatz israel for 64 years. The prime reason why, is because israle is a military base in the oil rich Middle East. There is no divergence of interest and never have been.
Will ersatz israel attack Iran? I have said several times before and I maintain that position; that the answer is no. Apartheid israel has been threatening Iran for what 4 plus years? If it believed that there was a nuclear threat it would have acted without a whisper. Why all the noise? To get the US to do the act.
Netanyahu would have more to fear from an unfriendly Congress than from Obama should he win a second term. But of course, he has AIPAC to take care of the Congress, so things are always in good shape politically as it concerns Israel, no matter who is in the White House.
“Privately, Obama yearns to come down hard n Netanyahu, whom he dislikes intensely. But the U.S. President does not dare to do this when his own re-election may hinge on the three per cent of American voters who are Jewish.” I read Alan's reply to a comment above, but consider that Obama is a real jellyfish if he has so few priciples that he has given in the Bibi every time, and will not even try to be fair. Think even of the UN veto of what is really US policy on illegal settlements in the OPT.
Now it is even worse, with huge effects just from the terrible sanctions on Iran (now SWIFT and EU banks destroying Iran's economy)let alone the military buildup in the Persian gulf, goading the Iranians more. Just to get reelected, when he has been the best POTUS Zionists could wish for.
I am convinced that Obama began laying plans for his re-election the day he took the Oath of Office. This of course included having Netanyahu come to the White House as a guest not soon after he gave his infamous Cairo speech. After presumably placating the "Muslim world," Obama set about establishing a relationship with Netanyahu, and he discovered that he would not be able to wrench a single iota of conciliation or cooperation from Bibi. Since that time, Obama has completely backed down and has even blatantly pandered to the zionists, including the horribly embarrassing incident in which he threatened the US activists planning to sail to Gaza on the "Audacity of Hope" with possible prison sentences if they went ahead with the flotilla. He also lent legitimacy to the Mossad's practice of extrajudicial assassinations by adopting the practice himself and enshrining it in US law. Obama has proven himself to be an even more atrocious president than Bush, Jr., which I personally thought could not be possible.
Alan - According to Jewish sources - The US Jewish population is more than five millions - more than Israel.
The only presidential candidate Netanyahu & Co. is affraid of is GOP Rep. Ron Paul. He is nationalist and doesn't want Americans to fight Israeli wars against Muslim countries. He wants to cut USAID to Israel, nationalize Federal Reserve, put a plug on Israel Lobby (AIPAC) and wants Washington to live with a nuclear Iran which doesn't threaten the US or its interests in the Middle East.
No wonder, Jewish lobby groups have declared Rep. Ron Paul “a crackpot” and “vicious anti-Semite".
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2011/11/25/rep-ron-paul-is-a-vicious-anti-semite/
No, Rehmat, Netanyahu is not afraid of Ron Paul. For one thing, Paul is a Republican and will have to cooperate with at least the Republicans in Congress if he were to win the election (which he will not), who are very pro-Israel. For another, Obama signed off on the bill guaranteeing Israel that $3 billion a year for the next 10 years, and there's nothing Ron Paul can do about that. Also, bear in mind that Paul is an isolationist - he would not stop Israel from bombing Gaza back to the stone age because in his mind, it would be interfering in Israel's "sovereignty." Ron Paul is indeed a crackpot; although not labeled an anti-Semite per se, he is labeled, correctly, as a racist.
"Ron Paul is indeed a crackpot; although not labeled an anti-Semite per se, he is labeled, correctly, as a racist." Israel, a thorn in the side of all mankind. - Alan was right from the other day about the failure of the Jewish people of not being the light bearers to the world as they were called to do at one time.---Oh, that's right. 99.9% of those that call themselves Jews today are lineage converts and not really Semite Jews. - maryam, at one time I thought your comments were reasonable and correct, but after that last one, I am putting all of your comments into the trash bin.
You'll learn, James. Start by doing a little googling, and you'll find out what I mean. Ron Paul has a long history of racism and I've been following it for years. He is also a Zionist who will refuse to put the brakes on Israel should they decide to obliterate the Gaza Strip and everyone living there, which under Netanyahu becomes a bigger possibility every day. One little reality check: Ron Paul is running as a Republican. Which should scare the crap out of you, if nothing else does. If you understand anything about the relationship between the POTUS and Congress, and just how many Republicans are evangelical Christians (read: Christian Zionists), you'll run, not walk, away from the empty promise otherwise known as Ron Paul.
Thank you Maryam for your reply. I don't want anyone, Republican or Democrat to be the next leader of this nation. No matter who it is that gets into the office of president of the United States, there is always that hidden unelected government that pulls this nation into a direction in which it chooses not to go, but will find itself in without any possible way out once we are totally there. Whomever it is that will be the next leader of this nation, I am a pessimist not believing that we will finally have a president that is for the people of this nation and not someone that will bow to the dictates of another country and the moneyed corporations that have funded that persons campaign. This nation is headed for trouble no matter who it is that takes over the leadership - I'm not worried about putting my email address on here for you to write to me personally. I would enjoy that very much. Living alone now and not having a second input into those things I am seeing makes it very difficult to see through some of the lies happening right before my face. If you choose to do so, here it is: [email protected]
Netanyahu: ‘UNHRC is anti-Israel’
On March 22 – the UN Human Rights Council voted to appoint a panel charged with evaluating the effects of illegal Jewish settlements on the civil, political, economic, social and cutural rights of native Muslim and Christian Palestinian in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. United States was the only country in the 47-member UNHRC which opposed the decision while ten members abstained.
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2012/03/24/netanyahu-unhrc-is-anti-israel/
Don't want to throw a spanner in the the conversation but the whole Obama and Netanyahu politics is a soap opera. The real orders are coming out of the City of London (the people who created Israel). In my opinion the only thing keeping Obama from striking Iran are the 'sane' military and intelligence generals of the U.S who are aware of the consequences of a strike on Iran would cause. Israel (London) knows it needs America's 'muscle' (military capabilities) to carry out an attack on Iran without being wiped off the map first by the Shanghai co-op and BRIC nations. The British Empire wants a clash of civilisation. I think most open minded people are aware now that the state of Israel is a ticking time bomb and has been since its inception. How can a country with mostly Muslims label its self a Jewish state? Israel was designed to eventually fall and that fall looks closer and closer.
@James, I will write you very soon, I have been very busy but I haven't forgotten you.
"How can a country with mostly Muslims lavel itself a Jewish state?" has to be the most inane thing I've read in years. 20 percent of Israel is Arab, and the rest are Jews.
Most people I know here in the middle east are convinced that the US and Iran are working together to foment instability in the region. For that reason, the US will never attack Iran, but it's questionable whether or not Israel will act on its own. I tend to think they won't, because they'll fail. Israel is good at bullying mostly unarmed people, i.e., Palestinians. Israel had its ass kicked badly by Hizbullah back in 2006, and I'm sure that they would experience similar comeuppance if they are stupid enough to attack Iran.
What are those crazy comments against Ron Paul for? He's the only honest candidate running, you can tell if someone is honest in America now because the media ignores them & voter fraud is evident EVERYWHERE! Everything I've heard Ron Paul say has been pro liberty & freedom. Values that aren't contained to the united states, I live in Tasmania.
Well, that explains it. You live in Tasmania. Everything you've heard? Well, hearing isn't the same as doing the research, and reading. I "heard" a lot of good things about Obama, too - and look how he turned out.
When Mandela was asked by the Boers at the end of Apartheid if they could have the Orange Free State as a white state, he said that he didn’t "...believe in white states or black states, only democratic states. One man, one woman, one vote, one government and everyone equal under the law. And if I believe that in South Africa, why should I change it for Palestine?..."
I am an ex Israeli fighter pilot, with the emphasis on "ex". I am a South African born Jewish fighter pilot who originally trained with the very professional South African Air Force during our Angolan War and who later had the bad sense of judgement to enlist in israel.
Today I remain proudly and firstly a Jewish South African who is also proud of those very words from our wonderful President. Israelis should listen a little harder to the international community, and especially to those famous world leaders like Mandela.
Maryam, I wonder, do you have one of those "Operation Megaphone" tools from the Israeli public propaganda units? One like this:-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megaphone_desktop_tool
Either way, you don't fool me one little bit.